Debunk
So let's get right to it, so I can leave Todd alone. And if you haven't yet read his website, go read it. He's a great writer and a prolific linker and, occasionally, ;-) an insightful thinker.
But I couldn't let his incessant criticism of Edwards rest. And, for the record, I am not afraid to
criticize the Edwards campaign. Todd has nine reasons Edwards will drop out by December. I've addressed number nine,
below.
Number 1 - Edwards has no organizational structure in place to galvanize voters This is, well, how do I say it, wrong. He's got an organization in New Hampshire and Iowa, and is
so far ahead of everyone else in South Carolina it's not even funny. Only Joe Lieberman's residual name recognition keeps him ahead. Todd cites to
Publius as evidence of a lack of organization. Publius is the same guy who predicts NC is on the verge of a Republican century because Mike Easley is vulnerable to the badly fractured NC Republican Party, which is running the likes of Bill Cobey (one time loser), Richard Vinroot (the William Jennings Bryan of North Carolina politics - motto "If there's an election, I'm running"), and Patrick (I'm over 30, I promise) Ballentine. Pshaw.
Edwards has staff working in every key state. He's set down firm roots in Oklahoma and Arizona and has regional chairs working hard in New Hampshire and Iowa down to the county level. He just announced
200 new Iowa endorsements, including the last Democratic Governor before Vilsack (who, by the way, recently declared that Edwards was very much in the race in Iowa). The information is on the campaign website. Click on the map of Iowa.
Number 2 - Large gifts of soft money from Edwards' PAC to Democratic Party bosses in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina won't translate into votes I'm not sure I'll even confront this one, as it is essentially irrelevant to the current situation. Edwards' PAC donations last year were not designed to translate into votes in 2004. They were designed to get him on the radar screen with party leaders in those states back in 2002. And they worked. Alex Sanders may well have endorsed Kerry. But Alex Sanders LOST last year. Meanwhile, Edwards is doing pretty dang well in South Carolina without him.
Number 3 - Edwards beat an obviously aged and feeble Lauch Faircloth in 1998 by only 83,000 votes out of more than 2 million cast. Again, not that relevant to the Presidential campaign, which is not being waged in North Carolina. Nevertheless, this comment shows a surprising lack of understanding of North Carolina politics. This state was in 50/50 equipoise long before the nation got to the 2000 debacle. It used to be between the traditionalists and the modernizers (to use Paul Luebke's accurate titles) in the Democratic party. Now it's between Democrats and Republicans. Nobody wins big majorities in this state. Well, nobody but Mike Easley and Elizabeth Dole.
Note that Lauch Faircloth beat "an obviously aged and feeble"
Terry Sanford in 1992 by 102,000 votes. and that "an obviously aged and feeble" Jesse Helms beat Harvey Gantt by 160,000 votes in 1996. Just click around on the site, you'll find the results. Point being: almost no candidate for Senate in NC ever wins over 53%. That's not the way the state works (and that's why you don't run to one side or the other, you run down the middle.) Dole's 54% was a huge victory, comparatively, attibutable to the nationwide shift to the Republicans in the last week of that campaign and Ms. Dole's movie-star celebrity. Johnny Edwards, remember was 10% down in October and surged to victory at the end. Now there's a little history for you.
Number 4 - Edwards just hired Democratic consultant Jim Andrews to "manage message and strategy I plead ignorance on this one. All I know about Andrews is the campaign ads he has produced for Edwards.
They're good.
Number 5 - Edwards' pro-Iraq war position leaves him no solid base of support within the Democratic Party Not every voter in the Democratic party is a one-issue obsessive with an inability to forgive. If the war in iraq was the only issue that mattered to Democratic voters, Senator Graham would be blitzing America with a successful run. Dean's appeal is based, as his supporters incessantly remind anyone who bothers look at a political chat site, on more than his position on the war. And while we're on that point, just how much courage did it take to oppose the war? If you're Howard Dean - you're sitting at 5th place. You need to make a splash. The members of your party who actually had to vote on the resolution in October all make their vote and then you decide to (1)
mischaracterize their position, (2) scream a lot and (3) become the darling of the anti-war left. Meanwhile, you're a Senator from a southern state with a decidedly pro-military bent, but you have to campaign in notoriously anti-war Iowa. Your job in the Senate is to represent your constituents, and you honestly believe that Saddam Hussein needs to be taken out of power (even if you are appalled at the President's handling of the run up to war). What's the easy choice for your Presidential ambitions? You make the call. I know who I think showed
political cojones.
I also remember Mr. Morman and his merry band of rabble rousers throwing dollars at me and hitting me with signs, telling me I should be ashamed of myself, while inside, the man they were protesting was telling us to take the protesters seriously and respect their point of view.
Number 6 - he's leaving black voters cold Again, not really true, and based on one article about his reception at a gathering of African American Baptists in Charlotte. The truth is on the ground in
South Carolina where the campaign first comes home to the black voter. Edwards has been solidly working the black electorate since the beginning of his campaign. He is, after all, the candidate who brought Chris Matthews's show not to his own alma mater, but to NC Central - to electrifying results on that campus that night.
Number 7 - It's not widely acknowledged, but Edwards had a relatively easy road to his North Carolina Senate seat Huh?!? Wha?? I thought he barely won. Cognitive dissonance abounds. Who freaking cares? I personally remember when that campaign started, and most Democrats assumed D.G. Martin would waltz to the nomination. So much so that other experienced pols stayed the heck out. Edwards saw an opportunity others said he wasn't ready for, and went for it. Sound familiar?
Number 8 - he's ignoring trade policy Well, perhaps Todd hasn't seen
this ad or read
this story:
Edwards delivered his basic stump speech with a few new twists. He repeatedly attacked Bush's trade policies, blaming them for the loss of 3 million U.S. jobs. He mentioned South Carolina's 7 percent jobless rate, the highest in nine years, and laid the blame squarely at Bush's feet.
"It's devastating, and this president is not going to do anything about it," Edwards said.
The loss of jobs in South Carolina and closing of textile plants due to rising foreign competition are starting to cause voters to question Bush's economic policies, a development that could portend trouble for the president even in a Republican-leaning state like South Carolina.
Edwards ridiculed a recent White House statement characterizing the current situation as a "jobless economic recovery."
"I don't know where the president grew up, but where I come from, there is no such thing as an economic recovery without jobs," he said. "The best way for us to have real economic recovery is to make sure George Bush gets another job in 2004."
On trade, Edwards said, he would seek to kill the provisions in the law that give tax breaks to industries that uproot and move overseas, taking American jobs with them.
Let's lay it all out on the table. Edwards is not the favorite. He never has been. He's always been the candidate that needed some breaks to get there, but had the skills to make his own luck. Dean has stolen his thunder so far, and it will be a great test of his campaign team and his own character to see how he reacts. So far, he's done just what he did as an attorney. He's looked at the odds and said "I'm the guy to beat this" and gone to work.
He can still win, and, unlikely as it might seem, Dean might be doing some of the work for him. Nobody has ever expected John Edwards to win Iowa or New Hampshire. He needs to finish better than expected. A good third in New Hampshire is all he needs. But if Dean beats Gephardt in Iowa, Gephardt is done. If he beats Kerry in New Hampshire, Kerry's done. Who then becomes the guy running against Dean? Edwards. And, like George W. Bush in 2000, the firewall will go up in South Carolina. If Edwards wins South Carolina and Arizona and Oklahoma, we've got ourselves a horse race.
We also haven't had a single real debate yet. The personal campaigning in NH, IA and SC has just begun. It's way too early. And that's the main reason that, no matter how many lists get posted on anti-Edwards web sites in Raleigh, there's no way he drops out by December.
Excuse the typos, I've got to get some real work done.